Washington DC, USA
Reuters
Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to largely adhere to Joe Biden’s foreign policy on key issues such as Ukraine, China and Iran. However, she could take a tougher tone with Israel over the war in Gaza if she replaces the president at the top of the Democratic ticket and wins the US election in November.
After Biden dropped out of the race on Sunday and endorsed her, Harris was the likely favorite to win the nomination, bringing with him work experience, personal ties to world leaders and a flair for global affairs honed during his time as Senate Majority Leader and Biden’s deputy.
U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris looks on as she visits the Reading Terminal Market in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, U.S., on July 13, 2024. PHOTO: Reuters/Kevin Mohatt/File photo
But if she were to run against Republican nominee Donald Trump, she would also have a major vulnerability: a problematic situation at the U.S.-Mexico border that has plagued Biden and become a major campaign issue. Harris was tasked at the start of his term with tackling the root causes of high irregular migration, and Republicans have tried to make her the face of the problem.
Analysts said a Harris presidency would resemble a second Biden administration on some global priorities.
“She may be a more energetic player, but one thing you shouldn’t expect is major changes in the substance of Biden’s foreign policy,” said Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator for Democratic and Republican administrations.
Harris, for example, has indicated that she would not deviate from Biden’s unwavering support for NATO and would continue to support Ukraine in its fight against Russia. That stands in stark contrast to a pledge by former President Trump to fundamentally change the US relationship with the alliance and doubts he has expressed about future arms shipments to Kiev.
Will you stay the course on China?
Harris, a lawyer by training and a former California attorney general, struggled to find her feet in the first half of Biden’s term, not helped by being handed a large share of the burdensome immigration portfolio early on amid record crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border.
That followed a failed 2020 presidential campaign that was widely seen as lackluster.
If she becomes the nominee, Democrats hope Harris will be able to better communicate her foreign policy goals.
In the second half of Biden’s presidency, Harris, the nation’s first Black and Asian American vice president, has raised her profile on issues ranging from China to Russia to Gaza and become a household name to many world leaders.
At this year’s Munich Security Conference, she delivered a tough speech criticizing Russia for its invasion of Ukraine and promising that the US would honor NATO’s Article 5 requirement for mutual self-defense with ironclad respect.
U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (not pictured) give a joint press conference at the Munich Security Conference (MSC) in Munich, southern Germany, on February 17, 2024. PHOTO: Tobias Schwarz/Pool via Reuters/File photo
On China, Harris has long positioned herself within Washington’s bipartisan mainstream on the need for the U.S. to counter China’s influence, particularly in Asia. She would likely maintain Biden’s stance of confronting Beijing when necessary but also seeking areas of cooperation, analysts say.
Harris has made several trips to improve ties in the economically dynamic region, including one to Jakarta in September to stand in for Biden at an Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit. During the visit, Harris accused China of trying to coerce smaller neighbors with its territorial claims in the disputed South China Sea.
Biden also sent Harris on a trip to bolster alliances with Japan and South Korea, key allies who are rightly concerned about Trump’s commitment to their security.
“She demonstrated to the region that she was enthusiastic about promoting Biden’s focus on the Indo-Pacific,” said Murray Hiebert, a senior fellow in the Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
While she couldn’t match the “diplomatic skills” Biden had developed over decades, “she did a fine job,” he added.
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But like her boss, Harris is prone to the occasional verbal gaffe. During a September 2022 tour of the demilitarized zone between South and North Korea to reaffirm Washington’s support for Seoul, she falsely touted a U.S. “alliance with the Republic of North Korea,” a statement her aides later corrected.
If Harris becomes her party’s standard-bearer and manages to surpass Trump’s lead in the pre-election polls and win the White House, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will be high on her agenda, especially if the war in Gaza is still raging.
While she largely followed Biden’s lead as vice president and strongly supported Israel’s defense of the right to defend itself after Hamas militants carried out a deadly attack on the border on Oct. 7, she was sometimes a little quicker than the president when it came to criticizing Israel’s military approach.
In March, she bluntly criticized Israel, saying it was not doing enough to mitigate a “humanitarian catastrophe” during its ground offensive into the Palestinian enclave. Later that month, she did not rule out “consequences” for Israel if it launched a full-scale invasion of the Rafah refugee camp in southern Gaza.
Analysts say there is a good chance that Harris, as president, will take a stronger rhetorical line toward Israel than Biden.
U.S. President Joe Biden delivers the State of the Union address at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, DC, U.S., on March 1, 2022. PHOTO: Saul Loeb/Pool via Reuters/File photo
While her 81-year-old boss has a long history with a series of Israeli leaders and has even called himself a “Zionist,” Harris, 59, misses his visceral personal connection to the country.
She has closer ties with progressive Democrats, some of whom have pressured Biden to attach conditions to US arms transfers to Israel amid concerns about the high number of Palestinian civilian casualties in the Gaza conflict.
However, analysts do not expect a major shift in US policy toward Israel, Washington’s biggest ally in the Middle East.
Halie Soifer, who served as Harris’ national security adviser during the then-senator’s first two years in Congress, from 2017 to 2018, said Harris’ support for Israel has been just as strong as Biden’s. “There’s really no daylight” between the two, she said.
Iranian nuclear threat
Harris can also be expected to take a strong stance against Israel’s biggest regional foe, Iran, whose recent nuclear advances have been increasingly condemned by the US.
Jonathan Panikoff, formerly the U.S. government’s deputy national intelligence officer for the Middle East, said the growing threat of the “weaponization” of Iran’s nuclear program could pose a major challenge to a Harris administration, especially if Tehran decides to test the new American leader.
After a series of failed attempts, Biden has shown little interest in resuming negotiations with Tehran on reviving the 2015 international nuclear deal that Trump abandoned during his presidency.
It is unlikely that Harris will make any major overtures as president unless there are serious signs that Iran is willing to make concessions.
Still, Panikoff, now at the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington, said: “There is every reason to believe that the next president will have to deal with Iran. It will undoubtedly be one of the biggest issues.”
– Additional reporting by JONATHAN LANDAY
