Dalton Kincaid: Poised to Become the Next Fantasy Football GiantDalton Kincaid: Poised to Become the Next Fantasy Football Giant Dalton Kincaid, the Buffalo Bills’ promising tight end, is poised to make a significant leap in his sophomore season. Benefiting from a strong rapport with quarterback Josh Allen and the departure of key targets, Kincaid is set to become a fantasy football force. Allen’s Trust Kincaid has impressed in his rookie campaign, establishing a solid connection with Allen. His 73 receptions for 673 yards and two touchdowns showcase his potential as a reliable receiving threat. Target Bonanza The departure of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis has left a void in the Bills’ offense that Kincaid is primed to fill. Buffalo has lost 317 targets, equivalent to 58.1% of their passing offense in 2023. This creates an opportunity for Kincaid to significantly increase his involvement in the passing game. Projected Targets and Impact If Kincaid captures a modest 25% of the freed-up targets, he would reach 115 targets in 2024. However, a more ambitious 40% increase would elevate him to 127 targets, placing him among the league’s elite tight ends. Catching Proficiency and Touchdowns Kincaid’s 80% catch rate in his rookie season is an indicator of his dependability. While a slight regression to a 70% rate is possible, he remains a reliable target for Allen. With increased usage and the potential for red-zone looks, Kincaid is a strong candidate for a breakout season in terms of touchdown production. Conclusion Dalton Kincaid is poised to be one of the most valuable fantasy football players in 2024. His rapport with Allen, the multitude of freed-up targets, and his potential for a significant target increase make him a viable candidate to become the next Travis Kelce-like force at the tight end position. Fantasy managers should keep a close eye on Kincaid as a top draft prospect.
It’s a point of honor for every fantasy football player to draft the best player at a position. Often, they’re drafted early. Finding the Christian McCaffreys and CeeDee Lambs of the world is to be expected. But more often than not, fantasy gamers are looking for the next best thing at a position. The fantasy football tight end landscape has been top-heavy for years, but Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid is in a position to change that in 2024.
Kincaid has enjoyed a season of rapport with quarterback Josh Allen and will benefit from a significant number of freed-up targets within the Buffalo offense, factors that will lead to more opportunities and, fantasy managers hope, the type of league-winning upside they crave.
Dalton Kincaid Fantasy Football Outlook: The Best Tight End?
Report with Allen
Kincaid entered his rookie season with a lot of hype and at times delivered, with 73 receptions, 673 yards and two touchdowns. However, he was a distant second in targets behind the now departed Stefon Diggs and his 160 targets. The departures of Diggs and Gabe Davis allowed Buffalo to rebuild its wide receiver room via the draft and free agency. Their most notable addition was rookie Keon Coleman selected in the second round of the NFL Draft.
The Bills also added receivers Curtis Samuel and Marques Valdez-Scantling in free agency. They’ll play alongside offensive returnees Khalil Shakir, James Cook and Dalton Knox. Buffalo’s goal has been to fill roles more than add impact players. Coleman and Valdez-Scantling profile as deep threats while Samuel will use his speed on quick screens and gadget plays.
Kincaid, Buffalo’s top returning player, gets a huge opportunity to build on his rookie year playing with Allen, occupy the center field and become the Bills’ version of Travis Kelce.
Buffalo’s evacuated targets
Kincaid’s opportunity comes in the form of freed-up targets. According to The Fantasy Footballers, Buffalo’s offense has lost 317 of its targets in 2023. More than half of those targets came from Diggs. But that number equates to 58.1 percent of their passing offense in 2023. If we fill in the blanks, they give us a path to Kincaid surpassing his current ADP and becoming the type of player who can win leagues.
The majority of the remaining targets belong to Diggs and Davis, who combined for 241 of the 317 targets lost in 2023. Buffalo remained stable at tight end, losing just three targets last season. That vast majority abandoned by last season’s receivers will be spread across the offense, with Kincaid being the primary beneficiary as the Bills’ top returning pass catcher.
Kincaid’s Chance
It goes beyond the raw numbers. Buffalo has been looking for players to fill roles. Coleman has potential. But he would have to have a special rookie year to diminish Kincaid’s potential this season.
Four wide receivers saw 100 or more targets last season. Each produced top-30 value in PPR formats. The outlier, Nacua, earned 160 targets and finished as a WR4. Only three others reached the 100-target threshold — Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers, Minnesota Vikings receiver Jordan Addison and Kansas City receiver Rashee Rice. None, however, finished in the top 20 among scoring receivers when the smoke cleared.
Instead of an outlier, we’ll focus on Kincaid, who inherits a large increase in targets and improves his output as a result. A modest 25 percent increase in targets would put him at 115 targets in 2024, good for sixth at the position. But if that target increase is closer to 40 percent, he’d be eligible for 127 targets, good enough to rank second among tight ends in 2023.
Kincaid caught 80 percent of his targets last season. A step back to a more modest 70 percent catch rate is to be expected. With either of his targets catching 70 percent, he’s in line for an 80-reception season. It’s also a safe bet that he’s a candidate for a higher touchdown output after only catching two last season.
That’s the risk at tight end. It’s largely a touchdown-dependent position for fantasy purposes. But with increased usage and the high likelihood that he can be used in both the slot and the red zone, Kincaid is a good bet to land at the top of his position in 2024.
Main photo credit: Syndication: Democrat and Chronicle
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