A place in the Euro 2024 final awaits the winners in Munich. We look ahead to Tuesday’s clash with our prediction and preview of Spain vs France.
Spain vs France stats: key insights
- Spain are the narrow favourites against France, having won 38.2% of pre-match simulations run by the Opta supercomputer.
- French striker Kylian Mbappé has scored just one goal from 20 shots at Euro 2024.
- Spain is the only team to have won all five matches in this edition, but no team has ever won a European Championship tournament six times, or six European Championship matches in a row.
More about Spain vs France
Spain and France are just one match away from the final of the 2024 European Championship. The round of 16 is scheduled for Tuesday. The two countries will travel to Munich in a different format, but with the same goal in mind.
Luis de la Fuente’s team is the only team to have won all five matches in this tournament in Germany, beating Julian Nagelsmann’s hosts 2-1 after extra time in the quarter-finals.
Dani Olmo opened the scoring early in the second half, but a late equaliser from Florian Wirtz sent the game into extra time, but Mikel Merino proved the unlikely hero with his winning header in the 119th minute.
That Merino magic secured a fifth consecutive victory for The Red one, Although no team in the history of a European Championship has won six matches in one tournament and no team has ever won six European Championship matches in a row.
France coach Didier Deschamps will certainly know that De la Fuente’s men are in top form. Since the start of 2023, they have won 15 of their 19 games. In that period, Spain is the best of all European countries with a 79% win rate.
Inspired by wingers like Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams, Spain have also won the last seven games in a row. The last time they won in a row was between June 2009 and June 2010 (12).
Yamal has created 14 chances for his Spain team-mates in this competition, the most by a Spaniard at a major tournament since Xavi at Euro 2012 (25). That number of chances created for his team-mates is also the most by a teenager at a major tournament since Opta began keeping records (1966 for the World Cup, 1980 for the European Championship).
The Barcelona winger provided three assists from those chances, including the perfect pass to Olmo on Friday. No Spanish player has ever scored more in a single European Championship tournament.
Yet this is not a traditional Spanish team, where possession is sacrificed for clinical efficiency in attack and defensive tenacity in defence.
Spain have recorded lower possession totals than their opponents in two of their five Euro 2024 matches (48% vs Germany, 47% vs Croatia), more often than they did in the 44 matches at major tournaments between the 2006 and 2022 World Cups (once in the Euro 2008 final vs Germany, 46%).
Regardless of the method, Spain will be aiming for a fifth European Championship final, with only Germany (6) reaching more. The Spanish have reached four of the five semi-finals, but currently lost on penalties to eventual winners Italy at Euro 2020.
France are hoping to reach the European Championship finals for the fourth time, having done so in 1984, 2000 and 2016. It is only the second time that it will not happen on French soil (the 2000 European Championship in the Netherlands).
In stark contrast to the Spaniards, however, The Blues have failed to impress in this edition so far. Deschamps’ men edged past Portugal on penalties after a dull goalless draw on Friday, with France again failing to score.
In France’s five matches at Euro 2024, only four goals have been scored (three for, one against), and they were either penalties (2) or own goals (2).
All 128 non-penalty shots were not scored (86 for France, 42 for the opponents), while France are the only team to have made more than 50 non-penalty shots at a European Championship since 1980 and failed to score any.
Those attacking problems have been partly down to the form of Kylian Mbappé, who has scored just one goal from 20 shots in this tournament, with a penalty in MD 3 against Poland.
The Real Madrid-bound striker scored just once from 34 attempts at the European Championship overall (3%), while at the World Cup he scored 12 goals from 39 shots (a shooting percentage of 31%).
Deschamps’ defensive success, however, can be attributed to Mike Maignan. The French stopper has a save percentage of 94% in this competition, the best of any goalkeeper who has been in the picture more than once.
Maignan’s impressive performances are the best by a goalkeeper at a European Championship since Iker Casillas in 2012 for that year’s winners Spain (also a 94% scorer). The Frenchman is expected to be tested again on Tuesday.
Spain vs France One on one
The two teams are not unfamiliar with each other at major tournaments. The sixth meeting between the two is scheduled for Tuesday.
France won three of their first four matches: 2–0 in the final of the 1984 European Championship on home soil, 2–1 in the quarter-finals of the same tournament in 2000 and 3–1 in the round of 16 of the 2006 World Cup.
Spain won the last meeting 2-0 in the quarter-finals on their way to glory at Euro 2012, with the other meeting ending in a 1-1 draw in the group stage of UEFA’s premier international tournament in 1996.
Spain and France have met in every other possible round of major tournaments. This semi-final is only the third match in each phase of the World Cup and European Championship, alongside Italy vs. Spain and England vs. Germany.
Spain vs France Prediction
The Opta supercomputer backed Spain as the slight favorite for this match, with The Red one 38.2% won and France triumphed in 31.8% of the 10,000 simulations prior to the match.
In the event of a draw, extra time will follow, as was the case in three of the four quarter-finals. This outcome is predicted in 30% of the data-based simulations.
Spain vs France Ploughing
Spain
Álex Remiro, David Raya, Unai Simón, Álex Grimaldo, Aymeric Laporte, Dani Carvajal, Dani Vivian, Jesús Navas, Marc Cucurella, Nacho, Robin Le Normand, Álex Baena, Fabián Ruiz, Fermín López, Martín Zubimendi, Mikel Merino, Pedri, Rodri, Álvaro Morata, Ayoze Pérez, Dani Olmo, Ferran Torres, Joselu, Lamine Yamal, Mikel Oyarzabal and Nico Williams.
Head coach: Luis de la Fuente
France
Starring: Alphonse Areola, Brice Samba, Mike Maignan, Benjamin Pavard, Dayot Upamecano, Ferland Mendy, Ibrahima Konaté, Jonathan Clauss, Jules Koundé, Théo Hernández, William Saliba, Adrien Rabiot, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Eduardo Camavinga, N’Golo Kanté, Warren Zaïre-Emery, Youssouf Fofana, Antoine Griezmann, Bradley Barcola, Kingsley Coman, Kylian Mbappé, Marcus Thuram, Olivier Giroud, Ousmane Dembélé and Randal Kolo Muani.
Head coach: Didier Deschamps
Spain vs France Predicted lineups
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