The Demise of the International Space Station: An End and a New BeginningThe Demise of the International Space Station: An End and a New Beginning Since its inception in 2000, the International Space Station (ISS) has been a testament to human ingenuity and scientific endeavor. However, as its functional life nears its end, the question of what to do with this massive orbiting structure arises. The Decommissioning Challenge At 430 tons, the ISS is the largest object in orbit around Earth. Abandoning it is not an option, as it could potentially collide with other satellites or debris, creating a hazardous situation. Moving it to a higher orbit would also prove extremely expensive. The Undertaker: SpaceX’s Role SpaceX, under the leadership of Elon Musk, has been awarded the contract to develop the ISS’s “undertaker” – a deorbit vehicle that will pull the station into the Earth’s atmosphere, where most of it will burn up upon reentry. Controlled Reentry and Safety Despite its immense size, scientists aim to control the trajectory of the ISS during its final orbits to ensure that any remaining parts land in an uninhabited area, likely Point Nemo in the Pacific Ocean, where the Russian space station Mir was decommissioned in 2003. The End of Permanent Human Presence in Low Earth Orbit With the ISS’s decommissioning, humans will no longer have a permanent presence in low Earth orbit for the first time in over two decades. However, China continues to operate its space station, Tiangong. Future of Space Habitation NASA is partnering with the private sector to develop affordable commercial space stations in the post-ISS era. Additionally, the Lunar Gateway project aims to establish a space station around the moon. Legacy and Impact The ISS has played a pivotal role in scientific research, international collaboration, and inspiring generations. It has been a symbol of human ambition and a stepping stone for future space exploration. Expert Insight Dr. Darren Baskill, a lecturer in astronomy at the University of Sussex, emphasizes the value of the ISS as a platform for experiments and a catalyst for scientific inquiry. He also highlights the potential of future space stations and the importance of continued human presence in space.
Since the International Space Station (ISS) went into service in 2000, astronauts and cosmonauts have been on the planet continuously, flying around the Earth every 90 minutes.
Throughout its existence, the floating laboratory has been a crucible for scientific experiments, long-term space exploration research and international collaboration. So far, 280 astronauts have traveled to the station, representing 23 countries.
But as they say, all good things must come to an end. And so now, at the end of the decade, the ISS will reach the end of its functional life.
But what do you do with a 430-ton space station, the size of a football field, when it’s no longer in use?
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You can’t just abandon ship; after the moon, the ISS is the largest thing orbiting Earth. If something were to collide with it, the whole thing could fall apart, sending a shower of debris threatening other satellites.
How about moving it up a bit so it’s out of the way? Not an option, although NASA did consider it.
“The Space Station is a unique artifact whose historical value cannot be overstated. NASA considered this when determining whether any portion of the Station could be salvaged for historical preservation or engineering analysis,” the agency wrote in a white paper.
Ultimately, such an undertaking proved to be too expensive and complicated to carry out.
That leaves us with only one option for this groundbreaking feat of human ingenuity: total destruction.
Meet Elon Musk, or more specifically, his now-dominant company SpaceX, which on June 26 was officially awarded the contract by NASA to develop and deliver the ISS undertaker—a job worth a whopping $843 million to the private company.
“The selection of a U.S. deorbit vehicle for the International Space Station will help NASA and its international partners ensure a safe and responsible transition to low Earth orbit at the end of stationary operations,” Ken Bowersox, deputy director of the Space Operations Mission Directorate at NASA Headquarters in Washington, said in a statement.
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Although plans are not yet final, the basic idea is that the Deorbit Vehicle will act as a tugboat, pulling the ISS into the atmosphere, where it will largely burn up upon re-entry.
However, the sheer size of the ISS means that parts of it will almost certainly survive the heatwave, so care must be taken to ensure that any parts that reach the surface do so in an uninhabited area.
“Most of the Earth is covered by water and space scientists are well versed in making changes to satellite orbits up to the point of re-entry, in order to precisely control the trajectory of a spacecraft,” said Dr Darren Baskill, a lecturer in astronomy at the University of Sussex. BBC Science Focus.
Baskill explains that the whole process requires small adjustments during the ISS’s final orbits so that scientists can be virtually certain the spacecraft will land in the right place, far away from humans.
“To use a sports analogy, rocket science is more like curling than a penalty kick in soccer, with adjustments being made all along the projectile trajectory,” he says.
There is a precedent for this. On March 23, 2003, the Russian space station Mir suffered its demise at Point Nemo in the Pacific Ocean. At 2,688 kilometers from the nearest land, the same spot is a safe place for the ISS to rest as well.
Is this the end of our life among the stars?
Now that the ISS’s days are numbered, it’s the first time in more than two decades that humans won’t be permanently present on the station. To put that in perspective, there are now grown adults who have literally never lived a day without someone whizzing around above their heads on the ISS.
Of course, humans will still be in space. Unbeknownst to many in the West, China has had its own space station, Tiangong, in orbit since 2021 and hopes to keep it operational into the 2030s.
For a US-backed space station, NASA is turning to the private sector to provide more affordable housing for its astronauts in the post-ISS era.
For example, NASA unveiled the Commercial Low Earth Orbit Development (CLD) Program in 2021, offering hundreds of millions of dollars to companies that can develop new space stations. It sounds pricey, but given that the ISS costs around $150 billion to develop and $4 billion a year to operate, the move could prove to be a smart one.
Besides, geo-orbits are old news. Much more ambitious is NASA’s Lunar Gateway project, which, if successful, will put a space station in orbit around (no points for guessing this one) the moon. With any luck, the first astronauts will enter the Gateway in 2028.
In short, the end of the ISS’s reign in low Earth orbit brings uncertainty to the future of space habitation. It will almost certainly be dominated by the private sector and will likely lead to us spreading our wings beyond our planet.
“What the ISS has provided over the past 23 years is a platform to conduct a wide range of experiments with rapid turnaround that simply cannot be done on the ground,” Baskill said. “It has also fostered international collaboration and inspired many to pursue further study in science.”
As Bowersox puts it, “The space laboratory remains a blueprint for science, exploration and partnerships in space, for the benefit of all.”
About our expert
Darren Baskill is an outreach officer and lecturer in the Department of Physics and Astronomy at the University of Sussex. He previously lectured at the Royal Observatory Greenwich, where he also initiated the annual Astronomy Photographer of the Year competition.
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