Can Harris beat Trump? Presidential forecaster makes early prediction.

Kamala Harris Earns Preliminary Endorsement from Renowned Election Forecaster Allan LichtmanKamala Harris Earns Preliminary Endorsement from Renowned Election Forecaster Allan Lichtman Allan Lichtman, the acclaimed presidential election forecaster, has released his preliminary assessment for the upcoming November election, indicating that Vice President Kamala Harris is predicted to emerge victorious. Lichtman’s forecast is based on his renowned “13 Keys to the White House” formula, which has accurately predicted the outcome of nine out of the past ten presidential elections. Keys Won by Harris According to Lichtman’s analysis, Harris has already secured eight of the 13 keys. These include: * No primary contest for the Democratic nomination * Absence of a significant third party * Strong short-term and long-run economy * Major policy changes under the Biden administration * No widespread social unrest * No scandals involving the presidency * Uncharismatic challenger (former President Donald Trump) Keys Lost by Harris However, Harris has not yet met the criteria for five of the keys: * Win in the midterm elections (Democrats need to gain House seats) * Sitting president seeking re-election (Biden is not the incumbent president) * No foreign/military failures (ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine) * No major foreign/military successes (potential for change if US brokers a ceasefire or hostage release) * Charismatic incumbent candidate (Harris may not appeal to all voters) Final Prediction in August Lichtman emphasizes that this is just a preliminary prediction, and he will release his final assessment after the Democratic National Convention in August. Nonetheless, Harris’s current lead in the keys suggests a strong likelihood of success in the upcoming election. Significance of Lichtman’s Forecast Lichtman’s track record of election predictions is impressive, making his endorsement of Harris a significant development in the race. However, it is important to note that this is an early forecast and the political landscape can still shift before November.

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Allan Lichtman, the presidential election forecaster who has successfully predicted the last nine out of 10 White House elections, has made his preliminary prediction for the November election: Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to win, he said Friday.

Lichtman said he would make his final prediction for the White House race in August, after the Democratic National Convention. But on Friday, Harris appeared to be the winner, based on the formula he uses to predict the election outcome.

That formula, his 13 Keys to the White House, was developed in 1981 by Lichtman and the famous mathematician Vladimir Keilis-Borok. Since then, this formula has been used with a high success rate to predict the outcome of the American presidential elections.

Lichtman uses his 13 keys, or criteria, to judge which party controls the White House in an election year. If the White House party is considered successful in eight or more of the “keys,” then the incumbent party is expected to win. If the incumbent party is considered failing in six or more of the criteria, or “keys,” then the challenger is expected to win.

Lichtman gave his assessment in a recent video podcast. Here is a summary of his preliminary determination:

Which ‘keys’ will Harris conquer?

Harris has won eight of the 13 keys so far. These include:

• Key 2 – No primary contest: Was there a significant challenger or contest to determine the nominee for the incumbent party? No. After President Joe Biden withdrew from the race on Sunday, he endorsed Harris, effectively clearing the field for her to become the presumptive nominee. No significant challengers from within the party have emerged.
• Key 4 – No Third Party: Third parties historically count against the White House party. “They’re a sign of dissatisfaction with the way the country is being run,” Lichtman said. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would need to get 5% of the vote to flip this key, and Lichtman says his November polls need to stabilize at 10%. Lichtman said it’s possible, but unlikely, that RFK Jr. could reach those numbers.
• Key 5 – Strong Short-Term Economy: The National Bureau of Economic Research has not declared a recession so far in the election year.
• Key 6 – Strong Long-Run Economy: Real economic growth in the term exceeds that of the previous two terms. “Real” economic growth means growth that is adjusted for inflation, Lichtman said. “The long-run growth under Joe Biden has been much greater than the average of the previous two terms,” ​​he said.
• Key 7 – Major Policy Change: A significant change from the previous administration or a truly historic policy change like the New Deal. “It’s clear that the policies under Joe Biden have been fundamentally different in almost every way than the previous administration of Donald Trump,” Lichtman said.
• Key 8 – No social unrest: “It can’t be sporadic protests like we saw on some college campuses this spring,” Lichtman said. “It has to be mass protests or unrest like we saw in the ’60s or during the Black Lives Matter movement where millions of people took to the streets,” Lichtman said, adding that this key could flip if major forms of social unrest bubble up before or during the Democratic National Convention.
• Key 9 – No Scandal: There must be corruption involving the President directly, and both parties recognize the scandal as corruption, similar to Watergate.
• Key 13 – Uncharismatic Challenger: The challenging candidate, former President Donald Trump, does not appeal to voters of all parties.

Which ‘keys’ does Harris lose?

• Key 1 – Win in the Midterm Elections: The party that holds the White House will win this key only if it holds more seats in the House of Representatives after the 2022 midterm elections than it did in the 2018 midterm elections.
• Key 3 – Sitting President Wanting Re-Election: A sitting vice president is not the sitting president. If Biden were to resign before November, effectively making Harris president and thus the sitting president, she would win this key, Lichtman said.
• Key 10 – No Foreign/Military Failure: Lichtman indicated that the lack of solutions to the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine is the reason why the Democrats are losing this key.
• Key 11 – Major Foreign/Military Success: Like the tenth key, the ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine are the reason Democrats are losing this key. The key could be turned if the U.S. successfully brokered a deal for a ceasefire and hostage release between Israel and Hamas, Lichtman said.
• Key 12 – Charismatic Incumbent Candidate: The candidate who is a member of the incumbent party must be attractive to voters across party lines, such as former President Franklin Roosevelt.

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