Dynastic Patterns in Presidential PoliticsDynastic Patterns in Presidential Politics The upcoming presidential election will mark a significant break from a decades-long pattern of candidates from the Bush, Clinton, or Biden families dominating the race. This absence of dynastic involvement has prompted widespread commentary, but a closer examination reveals a rich history of political families in American politics. From 1980 to 2020, George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, Hillary Clinton, and Joe Biden all ran for president, forming a nearly unbroken chain of connections. However, this pattern is somewhat deceptive as Biden is a one-man dynasty, while the Bushes and Clintons represent true political dynasties spanning multiple generations. Beyond the Bush-Clinton-Biden era, sociologists have identified other notable chains, such as the Nixon-Dole-Bush connection. Notably, Richard M. Nixon’s vice presidential candidacy in 1952 led to a string of subsequent elections involving his allies and supporters, bridging the gap between the Bushes and Clintons. Furthermore, historians can trace even longer chains of dynastic influence. From 1884 to 1944, Grover Cleveland, Theodore Roosevelt, William Jennings Bryan, and Franklin D. Roosevelt dominated presidential elections, with only brief interruptions. The Grover Cleveland-Biden comparison highlights the changing nature of dynastic politics. Had Biden faced Trump in 2020, it would have mirrored the 1892 race, where Cleveland challenged the incumbent who had defeated him four years earlier. While the absence of Bush, Clinton, or Biden candidates in 2024 represents a departure from recent history, it does not necessarily signal the end of dynastic influence in politics. Vice President Harris could potentially choose a candidate from the Bush family as her running mate, perpetuating the tradition. Ultimately, the ebb and flow of dynastic patterns in presidential politics is a testament to the enduring influence of family connections and the aspiration to build political legacies that transcend generations.
If you’ve been active on social media in the past 24 hours, you’ve probably heard: the upcoming presidential election will be the first in 48 years in which neither the Democratic nor Republican candidates will feature members of the Bush, Clinton or Biden families.
And that’s true. From 1980 to 1992, George H.W. Bush ran on the Republican ticket, first as vice presidential candidate and then as presidential candidate. Then Bill Clinton defeated Bush in the 1992 race, meaning he was back on the ticket in 1996. In 2000, George W. Bush won the White House, which he retained in 2004. In 2016, it was the Clintons’ turn again, when Hillary Clinton earned the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination.
The pattern nearly continued from Bush in 2004 to Clinton in 2008, except that Barack Obama defeated the former first lady in that year’s primaries and picked Joe Biden as his running mate — who went on to win in 2020. And so the chain continues: Bush, Bush, Bush, Bush/Clinton, Clinton, Bush, Bush, Biden, Biden, Clinton, Biden. And now: Donald Trump and Democrat-to-be-named-later-but-likely-to-be-Vice-President Harris.
You’ll notice, though, that Biden is an outlier here. The Bushes and the Clintons are political dynasties (the Bushes go back earlier, though not into presidential politics). Biden is a one-man dynasty. In fact, the first ticket he ran on, Obama’s in 2008, was seen as a break from this dynastic back-and-forth. But now it’s useful to include him in the pattern, because otherwise there’s that 2004-2016 divide.
Duke University sociologist Kieran Healy noted on social media that you could construct an almost equally robust chain from Richard M. Nixon to the Bushes, with Nixon’s 1952 vice presidential election leading to Bob Dole’s 1976 vice presidential election and Dole’s subsequent presidential candidacy in 1996, the gap in the Bush pattern. That’s 10 of the 11 contests, the lone exception being the overturned 1964 contest.
We can close that gap, too. Just make it a Nixon-Johnson (as in Lyndon)-Mondale (as in Walter) chain. That would give you nine out of nine elections from 1952 to 1984 — but not because of multiple candidates from one political family.
If we’re willing to let that 1964 race run empty, we can extend the Nixon pattern in the other direction. There was only one election between the first in which Nixon won the vice presidency and the last of Franklin D. Roosevelt’s four. Use Harry S. Truman as a handy bit of political glue and you get a 10-of-11 chain running from 1932 to 1972.
But Roosevelt is a Roosevelt, a member of a family that had seen a president before his four consecutive electoral victories. In fact, by including Theodore Roosevelt, Grover Cleveland’s three consecutive presidential bids, and the various bids of William Jennings Bryan and his brother Charles, we get 14 of the 16 contests from 1884 to 1944: Cleveland, Cleveland, Cleveland, Bryan, Bryan/Roosevelt, Roosevelt, Bryan, Roosevelt (no one, although Roosevelt earned delegates to be the Republican nominee), Roosevelt, Bryan (no one), Roosevelt, Roosevelt, Roosevelt, Roosevelt, Roosevelt.
Not consecutive, but still two dramatic political dynasties.
The mention of Grover Cleveland is a reminder that Biden’s withdrawal turns another historical parallel on its head. Had the November contest been Biden vs. Trump, it would have mirrored the 1892 election, with Cleveland challenging the man who had defeated him four years earlier.
We should also note, however, that declarations that the Bush-Clinton-Biden era is over are premature. Kamala Harris could select former Texas land commissioner George P. Bush as her running mate to carry the Lone Star State. Or she could choose, say, Hunter Biden, just to give Republicans a heart attack.
The thing about dynasties is that they’re not over until they’re over. After all, we’re only five campaigns into the Biden-Trump nomination streak. It certainly seems like it could go on forever.
