When the White House scheduled next week’s NATO summit, marking the 75th anniversary of the alliance’s founding, just days before the Republican National Convention, it could not have predicted that it would coincide with so much domestic political turmoil. President Biden will participate in a series of public events, including a press conference, that could determine his political fate after last week’s debate debacle.
But for Ukraine the stakes are even greater.
More than two years after Russia launched its full-scale invasion, Ukraine is still valiantly fighting back against Russian President Vladimir Putin’s relentless onslaught. Putin is targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, mercilessly firing missiles and drones into Ukrainian territory. After a six-month delay caused by inaction in Congress, U.S. military aid to Ukrainian troops is flowing again, but the defenders are still outmanned and outgunned.
“We need to secure our cities,” President Volodymyr Zelensky’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, told a small group of reporters in Washington this week. “For us, this is the most important thing. And we expect serious and strong decisions from the Washington Summit.”
To follow this authorJosh Rogin‘s opinions
NATO leaders are reportedly set to announce a new NATO office in Kiev, which will be touted as a “bridge” to alliance membership. They are also expected to announce a joint pledge of around $40 billion in financial aid to Ukraine by 2025. This is a not-so-subtle attempt to hedge against the risk that former President Donald Trump could return to power. No one knows what Trump would actually do if elected, but he has threatened to withhold aid in order to pressure Ukraine to negotiate.
Ukraine wanted more, including a formal step toward membership similar to the milestone it recently achieved with the European Union. But after Zelensky’s complaints nearly derailed last year’s NATO summit in Lithuania, Ukrainian officials won’t air their frustrations publicly. Instead, Ukrainian leaders are pushing for more concrete items that could make a difference on the battlefield. Ukraine desperately needs more air defense systems, Yermak said. There have been promises from allies to send Ukraine more Patriot missile systems, but there’s no clear idea of how many will be delivered or when.
“We want a really strong political commitment to ensure that the necessary deliveries are agreed and implemented before the end of the year,” said Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna.
Ukrainian leaders are also asking the Biden administration to further ease restrictions on the use of U.S. weapons on military targets in Russia. The White House decided in May to allow Ukraine to use some U.S. weapons against some Russian targets involved in the offensive on Kharkov. But Ukrainians are still not allowed to use U.S. weapons against Russian air bases that are used to launch strikes on several Ukrainian cities.
“Stop letting Ukraine fight with one arm tied behind their back. They’re artificially preventing Ukraine from defending itself,” House Intelligence Chairman Michael R. Turner (R-Ohio), who led a congressional delegation to Ukraine this week, told me in an interview.
The White House is concerned that allowing Ukraine to expand attacks inside Russia could be provocative. But Putin is already being provocative, Turner said: “Ukraine needs intelligence about valid military targets inside Russia and approval to do that.”
To be sure, the Biden administration has done a lot for Ukraine. At last month’s Group of Seven summit, Biden and Zelensky signed a 10-year security agreement. The administration is working on plans to give Ukraine an additional $50 billion in loans, backed by frozen Russian assets held in Western banks. But there’s still a disconnect between Ukraine’s goal of reclaiming as much of its territory as possible and the U.S. plan for Ukraine, which focuses on holding the line.
By deepening Ukraine’s integration with NATO, next week’s summit itself is a rejection of Putin’s insistence that the war be resolved on his terms, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) told me. “We need to continue to signal — on a bipartisan basis — that Russia does not have a veto over Ukraine’s aspirations for NATO membership,” she said.
But that’s just one piece of the puzzle. With Trump’s possible return looming, the best way to ensure Ukraine’s long-term security is to give Ukraine more capacity to actually defeat Russia. That means accelerating the delivery of air defense systems, fighter jets, longer-range missiles, and helping Ukraine develop its own defense production to reduce its dependence on the West.
Biden should also use the NATO summit to explain to the American people why Ukraine’s success is important to U.S. national security interests. The more Americans understand that stopping Putin in Ukraine is safer and cheaper than waiting for him to attack NATO later, the harder it will be for Trump — or any future administration — to undermine that mission.
