Argentina vs Ecuador Prediction and PreviewArgentina vs Ecuador Prediction and Preview After finishing second in Group B, Ecuador will face the reigning Copa America champions Argentina for a place in the semi-finals. Argentina is the favorite, with a 68.4% chance of winning within 90 minutes according to the Opta supercomputer. Key Insights: * Argentina has never lost to Ecuador at the Copa America. * Argentina has won its last eight matches, including friendlies. * Ecuador coach Félix Sánchez compares the match to a final. Players to Watch: Argentina: * Lautaro Martínez: Leads the Golden Boot race with four goals. Ecuador: * Kendry Paez: Vital player with the most ball wins and second-highest number of shots in Group B. Prediction: Opta’s model predicts a 68.4% chance of an Argentina victory within 90 minutes. Ecuador has a 14.5% chance of an upset, with extra time possible in the remaining 17.1%. Team Selections: Argentina: * Emiliano Martinez, Franco Armani, Gerónimo Rulli, Cristian Romero, Germán Pezzella, Gonzalo Montiel, Lisandro Martinez, Lucas Martinez Quarta, Marcos Acuña, Nahuel Molina, Nicolás Otamendi, Nicolás Tagliafico, Alexis Mac Allister, Ángel Di Maria, Enzo Fernández, Exequiel Palacios, Giovani Lo Celso, Guido Rodriguez, Leandro Paredes, Rodrigo De Paul, Valentin Carboni, Alejandro Garnacho, Julián Álvarez, Lautaro Martinez, Lionel Messi, Nicolás González. Ecuador: * Alexander Domínguez, Hernan Galíndez, Moisés Ramírez, Andrés Hurtado, Andrés Micolta, Ángelo Preciado, Félix Torres, Jackson Porozo, Joel Ordóñez, Layan Loor, Piero Hincapié, Willian Pacho, Alan Franco, Alan Minda, Ángel Mena, Carlos Gruezo, Janner Corozo, Jeremy Sarmiento, Joao Ortiz, John Yeboah, José Cifuentes, Kendry Páez, Moisés Caicedo, Enner Valencia, Jordy Caicedo, Kevin Rodríguez.
After finishing second in Group B, Ecuador will face the reigning Copa America champions for a place in the semi-finals. Look ahead to the decisive match with our Argentina vs Ecuador prediction and preview.
Argentina vs Ecuador Statistics: Key Insights
- Argentina is the favorite here: it won this match within 90 minutes in 68.4% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer.
- They have never lost to Ecuador at the Copa America, with 11 wins and five draws.
- Argentina have won their last eight matches, including friendlies, equalling the longest winning streak under Lionel Scaloni as head coach
Ecuador coach Félix Sánchez has compared the Copa America quarter-final to a final as the country prepares to face reigning champions Argentina in Houston.
The Tricolour did not have the best start to the tournament with a 2-1 defeat to eventual Group B winners Venezuela.
However, an impressive 3-1 win over Jamaica, combined with a goalless draw against Mexico, was enough to finish second in the group and qualify for the knockout stages.
Ecuador have never won the Copa America, but a convincing victory over Argentina would certainly make them a team to watch.
Sánchez is confident his players can spring a surprise.
“We know it’s an unmatched opponent and we know how tough it’s going to be. We’ll see how that develops,” Sanchez said.
“It’s another final for us, and we will try to compete against the world champions and the best team in the world. I believe that our team will be extremely motivated with a very high morale and will try to play a good match.
“I have full confidence in our players. I know they will do their best, as they have done in the three games. We know how tough it is and we will do everything we can to win.”
Argentina remained perfect in the group stage, winning all three games without conceding a single goal. Lautaro Martínez provided the spark: he leads the race for the Golden Boot with his four goals.
They also look set to get a boost from the return of Lionel Messi, who missed the 2-0 win over Peru with a hamstring injury, while head coach Lionel Scaloni will be back on the sidelines after serving a one-match suspension.
Assistant coach Walter Samuel still expects a tough battle, given the difficulties posed by Ecuador’s playing style.
“They are different rivals,” Samuel said. “We faced Ecuador in the last friendly. We know them and (they) have a capable coach. The physical aspect is a big thing, but they also have great technical quality. They are playing well in this tournament and it will be difficult.
“We saw a lot of players who didn’t have playing time (against Peru). We’ve used almost the entire selection now. Now the next round comes and we have to be ready.”
Players to watch
Argentina – Lautaro Martinez
Only two Argentine players have scored more goals in a single edition of the tournament in the 21st century than Martínez in this edition (four): Juan Roman Riquelme in 2007 and Lionel Messi in 2016, both with five goals.
Martínez is also the Argentina squad leader in shots on target (nine), despite only starting once so far.
Ecuador – Kendry Paez
Kendry Paez was a vital player for Ecuador in the group stage, as he made the most ball wins (19) and the second-highest number of shots (10, behind Salomon Rondon’s 13) of all the teams in Group B.
The 17-year-old will move to Chelsea next year and is already showing the quality that initially attracted the Blues.
Argentina vs Ecuador Prediction
Unsurprisingly, Opta’s model is biased towards the reigning champions securing a place in the semi-finals. Argentina have a 68.4% chance of winning this match inside 90 minutes. Ecuador pulls off a huge upset in 14.5% of simulations, with the match going to extra time in the remaining 17.1%.
According to the supercomputer’s tournament-long simulations, Argentina reaches the semi-finals 76.4% of the time. Argentina has never lost to Ecuador at the Copa America, with 11 wins and five draws. However, they have only met once in the knockout rounds, with The Albiceleste progress to 2021 after a 3-0 victory in the quarter-finals.
Ecuador have beaten Argentina just five times in their previous 40 meetings in all competitions, winning 2-0 (one draw and six losses) since the October 2015 World Cup qualifier.
Argentina vs Ecuador selections
Argentina
Emiliano Martinez, Franco Armani, Gerónimo Rulli, Cristian Romero, Germán Pezzella, Gonzalo Montiel, Lisandro Martinez, Lucas Martinez Quarta, Marcos Acuña, Nahuel Molina, Nicolás Otamendi, Nicolás Tagliafico, Alexis Mac Allister, Ángel Di Maria, Enzo Fernández, Exequiel Palacios, Giovani Lo Celso, Guido Rodriguez, Leandro Paredes, Rodrigo De Paul, Valentin Carboni, Alejandro Garnacho, Julián Álvarez, Lautaro Martinez, Lionel Messi, Nicolás González.
Head coach: Lionel Scaloni
Ecuador
Alexander Domínguez, Hernan Galíndez, Moisés Ramírez, Andrés Hurtado, Andrés Micolta, Ángelo Preciado, Félix Torres, Jackson Porozo, Joel Ordóñez, Layan Loor, Piero Hincapié, Willian Pacho, Alan Franco, Alan Minda, Ángel Mena, Carlos Gruezo, Janner Corozo, Jeremy Sarmiento, Joao Ortiz, John Yeboah, José Cifuentes, Kendry Páez, Moisés Caicedo, Enner Valencia, Jordy Caicedo and Kevin Rodríguez.
Head coach: Félix Sánchez Bas
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