Wimbledon draw 2024: nightmare for Iga Swiatek? Are Djokovic and Murray ready?

Wimbledon+draw+2024%3A+nightmare+for+Iga+Swiatek%3F+Are+Djokovic+and+Murray+ready%3F

Draws are the ultimate cotton candy for tennis fans. They are irresistible.

They mean everything in a sport where the way players play against each other can hugely influence the outcome. They mean nothing in a sport where all players have to prove themselves every day.

What can we learn from this year’s Wimbledon men’s draw?

Novak Djokovic had his best day since undergoing surgery to repair his torn meniscus on June 5. He finished on the opposite side of the draw to Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, the two tournament favorites and the winners of the last two Grand Slams.

go deeper

GO DEEPER

Surface control: how Alcaraz won Grand Slams on hard, grass and clay courts

His first opponent is a qualifier named Vit Kopriva of the Czech Republic, 27 years old and ranked 123rd in the world. If he can get past Kopriva, Djokovic will face another qualifier, Alejandro Moro Canas of Spain, who is ranked 189th, or a British wildcard named Jacob Fearnley, who is ranked 271st. The tennis gods could not have been kinder to the 24-time Grand Slam champion, the best grass-court player in the world.

That does not apply to Sinner. The Italian has potential matchups against a number of stunners – one a proven champion on the grass court, the other someone who should be one eventually.

The first would be a potential second-round clash with compatriot Matteo Berrettini, a 2021 finalist and two-time Queen’s Club champion. He’s been plagued by injury and illness over the past two years, but Berrettini has the kind of big serve and big game that can take the racket out of an opponent’s hands, especially on the slick grass of the first week. He’s no slouch on Centre Court either.

Berrettini’s superb serve makes him a lurking threat on grass (Mike Hewitt/Getty Images)

The second is Ben Shelton, another battering ram who is probably still a year or two away from learning to play on grass. He set foot on a grass track for the first time a year ago. He loves it; it just might not love him yet, and Shelton may have to pass another grass track enthusiast in Denis Shapovalov to get to Sinner. But Shelton starts against Italian qualifier Mattia Bellucci.

As for Alcaraz, the reigning champion, he should have smooth sailing until the middle of the second week. Mark Lajal, a 21-year-old Estonian qualifier, is his opponent in the first round. The first popcorn match he plays may be against Frances Tiafoe in the third round, but Tiafoe has been in a slump since September last year. An in-form Tommy Paul could make it to the quarter-finals, but that’s still a long way off.

Alcaraz defends the title after beating Djokovic in last year’s final (Patrick Smith / Getty Images)

Alexander Zverev’s quarter may be the softest — No. 20 Sebastian Korda is arguably the best grass court player in that section — but Zverev could use help. A Grand Slam finalist on both clay and hard courts, Zverev has never advanced beyond the fourth round at Wimbledon.

There’s also a man called Andy Murray, a Briton who has some notoriety around the All England Club. Murray, who may not even play if he can’t recover from surgery to remove a cyst from his spine a few days ago, has been drawn against Czech world number 38 Tomas Machac, against whom he tore ligaments in Miami this year. The highly-rated 23-year-old is by no means an easy foe, but even Murray would probably say that in his current condition, anyone with a heartbeat and a racket could be formidable.

Wimbledon 2024: Men’s First Round Selections

Jannik Sinner (1) vs Yannick Hanfmann
Nicolas Jarry (19) vs. Denis Shapovalov
Cristian Garin (Q) vs Jerry Shang
Matteo Arnaldi vs Frances Tiafoe (29)
Pavel Kotov vs. Jordan Thompson
Zizou Bergs (Q) vs. Arthur Cazaux
Jakub Mensik vs. Alexander Bublik (23)
Sebastian Korda (20) vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Arthur Fils vs. Dominic Stricker
Andy Murray vs Tomas Machac
Corentin Moutet vs. Alex de Minaur (9)

Somewhere in south-west London on Friday morning, world number two Coco Gauff would have been forgiven if she had allowed herself a small smile.

On the Wimbledon draw day she was the big winner among the ladies. As the second seed, Gauff was already unable to face world No. 1 Iga Swiatek until a possible final; considering her lopsided 1-11 head-to-head record against Swiatek, that was a pre-existing bonus.

But that aside, all the remaining seeds could have fallen on her side. Half of them did fall — that’s how the draw works — but when the numbers came out, the hardest and most difficult ones on the SW19 grass remained on Swiatek’s side.

Swiatek reached the quarter-finals of Wimbledon last year (Sebastien Bozon/AFP via Getty Images)

2022 champion Elena Rybakina is halfway to Swiatek, as is defending champion Marketa Vondrousova. Then came one of the players of the year and another flat hitter, Danielle Collins, two-time runner-up Ons Jabeur, and former French Open winner and semifinalist here Jelena Ostapenko, who has an unbeaten record against Swiatek. Jessica Pegula, who won a grass-court tournament in Berlin last week, is also there.

go deeper

GO DEEPER

The Wimbledon champion Marketa Vondrousova: unseeded. Not sponsored. Undefeated.

Of course, Gauff’s team also has some dangerous opponents, such as her compatriot Madison Keys – always a threat on grass – a resurgent Naomi Osaka and Russian 17-year-old Mirra Andreeva, who has just reached the French Open semi-finals. But after world number 3 Aryna Sabalenka, the three highest-ranked players in the bottom half are number 7 Jasmine Paolini (no career wins on grass until this week), number 8 Qinwen Zheng (two all-time match wins on Wimbledon) and No. 9 Maria Sakkari (who is having a rough year and has a third-round best run at Wimbledon).

That’s the good news for Gauff. The bad news?

Predicting a female winner at Wimbledon has been a piece of cake over the past decade. The last 10 editions have been won by nine different players, with Serena Williams the only player to have won the double in that time. The last six championships have produced six different winners, two of whom have retired and one, Simona Halep, is not ranked high enough to play this year after returning from a drugs ban.

The three remaining winners are all in the upper echelons of the draw, with Angelique Kerber joining Rybakina and Vondrousova on Swiatek’s half.

Wimbledon doesn’t just produce multiple winners: it’s a tournament full of surprises. And from the first round, some big names have tough-looking matches.

Swiatek starts against Sofia Kenin, the 2020 Australian Open champion who always fights hard and played a few matches in Eastbourne this week to prepare for the grass. Swiatek comes in without a tournament ahead of Wimbledon, so could be vulnerable early on – and if the Polish woman has any doubts about Kenin’s threat level at Wimbledon, all she has to do is ask Gauff.

Gauff has never advanced beyond the fourth round at Wimbledon (Ben Stansall/AFP via Getty Images)

Twelve months ago, Kenin defeated Gauff here in the first round as a qualifier and eventually reached the third round. Gauff knew as soon as the draw was announced last year that her compatriot was about as strong an opponent as she could get, with Kenin coming through qualifying confidently.

“Her game is a tough game to play against. She has some weapons, underrated weapons, that I don’t think people talk about that much.”

Two days later, Gauff’s premonitions came true. “She had nothing to lose today,” Gauff said after Kenin knocked her out in the first round. “She’s in a tough phase of her career, so I knew she would play with a lot of motivation.”

Gauff lost that day 6-4, 4-6, 6-2, but there was a silver lining. By the time she played her next tournament in Washington, DC, Brad Gilbert was coaching her for the first time, and a US Open title would be weeks away. After that experience last year, she may feel she’s earned a good draw this time around.

On the other hand, Swiatek may feel a little aggrieved at how things have turned out. If she gets past Kenin, a potential fourth-round run to the final would be Ostapenko/Caroline Garcia, Collins/Vondrousova and then Rybakina/Jabeur doing it the hard way.

Other potentially tough first rounds are for Collins, who is looking to regain some momentum after a disappointing Roland Garros, and 21-year-old Danish Clara Tauson, who impressed by reaching the fourth round in Paris earlier this month.

Victoria Azarenka, the No. 16 seed and Gauff’s fourth-round opponent, will start against former US Open champion Sloane Stephens.

The No. 13-seeded Ostapenko should have her hands full against Australian Ajla Tomljanovic, who reached the Birmingham final last week and was a Wimbledon quarterfinalist in 2021 and 2022. Part of that run, however, included a particularly ill-tempered third-round match against Ostapenko. The pair played again at the Australian Open in January (won by Ostapenko) and have since patched up their differences.

go deeper

GO DEEPER

‘I was fearless then’: Yelena Ostapenko evokes the spirit of 2017 in Paris

Vondrousova, who will play first on Centre Court on Tuesday against Spanish world number 83 Jessica Bouzas Maneiro, has all eyes on her moves after suffering a hip injury in Berlin last week.